The New Nation - Internet Edition

ACCORDING to an AFP news agency report from Paris the other day, the rich world's energy watchdog painted a 'bleak picture of the next two decades' with the world's dependence on fossil fuels set to rocket at a time of global alarm about climate change. The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 countries, issued its World Energy Outlook 2007 report identifying the long-term trends that will shape energy policy up to 2030. Coal will make a comeback, the Middle East and Russia will grow in influence as oil suppliers, and emerging giants like China and India will account for most of the increase in energy demand. The trends in energy demand, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions shown in this year's World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006, the International Energy Agency warns.

As reported by the news agency, it gave little hope to those looking for a technological breakthrough, which many believe is necessary for a meaningful reduction in world greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris-based research centre did not identify a clean, new source of energy that can provide the power needed to fuel improvements in living conditions for the world's poor without damaging the environment. Instead, it predicted that coal, one of the oldest and dirtiest sources of energy, would be more in China and India in 2030. In line with its spectacular growth over the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73 per cent between 2005 and 2030, the agency said. China and India, which already account for 45 per cent of world coal use, would take over four-fifths of the increase in its use by 2030. The 663-page IEA report was packed with alarming statistics based on a 'reference scenario' in which energy consumption continues on current trends without government measures to reduce demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Under this model, energy demand increases by more than 50 per cent up to 2030, with 84 per cent of the new demand supplied from fossil fuels.

China and India's energy needs measured in tonnes of oil equivalent, more than double from 2005-2030. China's energy demand surpasses that of the United States after 2010 and its pollution problems worsen. China is also set to become the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions this year, an IEA report said. Coal-fired power stations have been the primary cause of the surge in global emissions in the last few years and new power stations in China and India are likely to be mostly coal-fired. Because of this, the IEA urged governments to focus on development of clean coal technologies, in particular carbon capture and sequestration, which entails capturing carbon and storing it underground. According to its calculations, if governments do not take further action the world's temperature could rise by six degrees Centigrade beyond 2030, IEA research chief predicted as quoted by the news agency.