The New Nation - Internet Edition

Dwijen Mallick

Climate change is not a possibility rather it is now a harsh reality for many of us. This is demonstrated through various recent extreme climatic events around the world such as recent prolonged and devastating floods in Bangladesh, India, China and in the UK; severe drought in Asia and Africa, extreme heat waves in central Europe (e.g., 48°c temperature in Hungary on 24 July 2007, which killed over 500 people there), devastating cyclones and tidal surges across the coasts. Climate change as a global environmental problem is the direct result of the burning of fossil fuel and wasteful consumption by the people in industrialised and rich countries but the people in developing and poor countries are the main victims of the impacts of climate change.

We cannot prevent the current trend of climate change (i.e., high temperature in the atmosphere, erratic rainfall and extreme weather conditions) and it will affect the basic elements of human life including food, water, health, fodder and fuel. The developing countries including Bangladesh are the most vulnerable to the adversities of climate change. According to a recent Times Magazine report, Bangladesh will be the second most vulnerable country to climate change impacts as the country has very least capacity to address the devastating impacts.

Bangladesh is already facing many of the harmful impacts of climate change due to its geophysical location, hydrological influence by erratic monsoon rainfall and changes in regional water flow patterns. The country faces too much water in monsoon causing floods and too little water in dry season. This situation will be aggravated in the warmer climate resulting in severe droughts and increasing floods. According to the recent IPCC report, Bangladesh will experience 1.0-104°c rise in temperature in 2030-2050. By 2100, the average rise of temperature would be 2.4°c. The recent events and evidences suggest that we cannot withstand the 0.6°c temperature rise of the past century. Any further rise in temperature will bring deadliest consequences for ecosystems, human and social systems. Experts say that sea-level rise due to climate change will inundate vast areas of coastal Bangladesh. It is predicted that for about 45 cm rise of sea level along Bangladesh coast may inundate 10-15% of the land by the year 2050 and may dislocate over 35 million people from the coastal districts. Bangladesh is a very highly densely populated country in the world. Where those people will go? Salinity intrusion in the coastal areas and river bank erosion across the country are already affecting the lives and livelihoods of the millions of poor and marginal people in Bangladesh.

The IPCC report also says that there would be drastic changes in rainfall patterns in the warmer climate. The country may experience 5-6% increase of rainfall by 2030, which may create frequent big and prolonged floods in Bangladesh. The country is facing drought in the northwestern region, which affects agriculture, food production, water resources and human health. The moderately drought affected areas will be turned into severely drought prone areas within next 20-30 years.

The rising temperature and erratic rainfall (heavy and low and untimely rainfall) and their associated extreme events like drought, salinity intrusion in coastal regions, flood, cyclone and tidal surges, etc. are affecting ecosystems, productivity of land, agriculture, food security, water availability and quality, health and livelihood of the common people living in various climatic zones of Bangladesh. Frequent crop failures due to floods and drought in central and northwest parts of the country have increased hunger and poverty. Thus, today's moderately poor will be extreme poor in future due to negative impacts of climate on their lives and livelihood, because the poor has least capacity to cope with the environmental, economic and social shocks. Sectoral development, poverty alleviation and achieving of MDGs will be affected by the climate impacts in the long run in Bangladesh.

There is higher rate of rural to urban migration in Bangladesh, because of endemic poverty and various social factors. This will be aggravated by the climate impacts. Thousands of poor are becoming environmental and climate refugees in Bangladesh and living in city slums in inhuman condition without basic amenities. They are also putting enormous pressures on urban infrastructure, economy and service delivery systems. This process will be further aggravated in the warmer climate and associated sea level rise in Bangladesh.

People in Bangladesh don't emit much C02 and GHG. The per capita annual GHG emission is very low here. According to the recent World Development Indicators (2006) report of the World Bank the per capita carbon emission from Bangladesh has been 0.3 Mt only, while these were 20.2 Mt and 9.2 Mt per capita for the USA and the UK. The global per capita consumption has been 4.0. Bangladesh emits quite below the global average and thus people of Bangladesh did not create the problem, but are the victims of the global climate problem.

It is the rich and developed countries who have to take major responsibilities to stop dangerous climate change by cutting carbon emission and helping the poor countries like Bangladesh to address the negative impacts. We have to build capacity at community, regional and national levels to mitigate climatic impacts as well as safeguard our people, their assets and livelihoods, development process of the country and the ecosystems. We need greater awareness about climate change and its impacts; collective actions among vulnerable community people and key actors; policy measures and institution capacity; and massive preparedness to tackle the devastating impacts of climate change.

Climate change is a problem of unequal economic growth, over consumption, production and environmental injustice. Development agencies, volunteering organisations and civil society groups can play a key role in influencing governments, people, private sectors, business, industries and other stakeholders to make decisions and changing behaviour and practices to save the planet, people and ecosystems by reducing GHG emission and avoiding wasteful consumption and luxury. At present, we cannot prevent climate change, but the poor countries have to protect them from the devastating climate impacts and meet their development needs (such as food, nutrition, education, health and basic services and securities, which arc threatened by the climate change). Freedom from hunger, injustice and political repression will be again threatened by climate change all over the world. No part of the planet is free from this great danger. Climate security is a global affair and climate change is an issue of global justice and must be addressed now.

So, we must act together promptly.

-BCAS Feature